June 5, 2020
As
the threat of COVID-19 reared its ugly head and the economy shut down, things
went south—and they went south quickly.
The
markets were decimated, marking one of the most historic economic crashes in financial
history as they dropped by record-breaking numbers in a 24-hour period.
However,
that was a period of increased risk, of great uncertainty, nothing like we see
now today—which, of course, is a period of "great prosperity" and,
yes, "extreme certainty".
(Chart source, google charts)
Due
to these "prosperous times" we now find ourselves in, we are bearing
witness to an almost complete reversal in the S&P 500 and DOW Jones
Industrial Average, which are currently going through an incredible rally,
edging closer and closer with each passing day to the pre-crash highs.
If
rallying markets alone are not enough to convince you of just how great our
economy is or how stable of a world we live in, then let’s take a look at just
some of the truly "positive" news unfolding all around us:
•
Trade war
tensions between the United States and China higher than ever.
•
Record breaking
unemployment due to COVID-19 shutdowns.
•
Estimated that half of small
businesses to be shut down because of COVID-19.
•
Atlantic Fed
estimates that Q22020 is -52.8%.
•
Political unrest
and protests explode across America, with over 10,000 arrested.
•
Second wave of COVID-19 expected due
to mass protests across America.
Oh
yes, I can see exactly why the markets are heading back to all-time highs, what
with all this "great" news unfolding all around us.
All
of this "great" news must be why markets are roaring higher, right?
The Secret Sauce
Or...
Maybe... Nah... But... Perhaps?
Just
maybe there might be another reason why stock markets are ignoring anything
rational, ignoring the fact that tourism is likely dead for years, ignoring the
fact that entire industries and businesses have been decimated, and ignoring
the fact that GDP is tanking.
(Chart source, Federal Reserve)
(Image source, economist)
Bingo!
I've discovered the secret to success, the secret to making the markets move
higher!
Just.
Print. More. Money.
It
truly is as easy as that. There is no need for financial experts. There is no
need for someone to manage your money. There is no need to do anything other
than sit back and ride the inflation train, as asset prices continue to move
higher and higher forever.
Since
the COVID-19 crisis began, we have seen government after government announce
stimulus program after stimulus program, throwing caution to the wind and
rapidly increasing debt levels to help keep the economy afloat and the economic
engine chugging along.
(Image source, Statista)
Statista reports:
"While the U.S. has committed to the
largest rescue package of any country in pure dollar terms over three
congressional stimulus phases ($8.3 billion, $192 billion and $2.5 trillion),
Elgin's research shows that global responses are quite different compared to
economic size.
The U.S. measures work out at an estimated 13 percent of GDP and as large
as that is, it actually trails Japan's measures which equate to just over 21
percent of GDP.
In Europe where Spain and Italy have endured devastating coronavirus
outbreaks, the size of stimulus packages are estimated to be 7.3 percent and
5.7 percent of GDP respectively."
(Chart source, goldprice.org)
Regardless
of this unprecedented money printing, there is one thing that you should never,
ever do: Buy gold and silver bullion.
Precious
metals have historically proven to be horrible at protecting their purchasers
from the ravages of inflation, against reckless money printing run amok, by governments
who simply believe that wealth can be created out of thin air.
/endsarcasm
My
final suggestion?
Ignore
everything I just wrote. Ignore the irrational markets, ignore the noise. See
the world around you, the risks that it presents, and yes, keep stacking.
The
farce will eventually end.
About Sprott Money
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