Posted on 2020-01-22 18:22:00
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Just scan the headlines (that’s what computers do), weigh the factors and make the call. It’s easy! What’s not so easy is understanding where markets go when these factors are no longer in play.
Stocks are in bubble territory, based on weak earnings, and have been propped up by expected good news on trade.
The other driver is FOMO — “fear of missing out” — that can turn to simple fear in a heartbeat. If the phase one trade deal and a successor to NAFTA (USMCA) are both approved by late December and the Fed pauses rate cuts indefinitely, which are both likely, what’s left to drive stock prices higher?
It won’t be earnings or GDP, which are both weak. Once the good news is fully priced in, there’s nothing left but bad news. And we’re at the point right now.
That leaves stocks vulnerable to a sharp decline around year-end or early 2020. Simple solutions for investors include cash, gold and Treasuries. Get ready...